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The dataset shows growing federal spend over 24 fiscal years (R² 0.40). Forecast is 3 years forward; bands are ±1.96σ over expanding-residual variance.
Historical solid · forecast dashed · ±1.96σ band
Linear regression (slope=3506144276, intercept=-7032262655924, n=24). Confidence ±1.96σ over expanding-residual variance.
The dataset shows a linear regression trajectory. This is an intentionally simple model — disclosed up front. Read the methodology page for known caveats and the roadmap to a state-space model.