Review the procurement-amendment cap policy.
The dataset shows 50 federal contracts where the current value is ≥3× the original commitment, totalling $1.8B in current spend. 50 are in the highest severity band (≥10× growth). Departments with formal amendment-cap policies (typically 2× or 1.5× over a multi-year window) would surface these for re-procurement before the threshold is crossed. The recommendation is grounded in 50 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
Monetary impact
Recoverable / prevention rate (8.0%) and indirect-cost rate (1.2%) are calibrated category-level defaults grounded in published auditor benchmarks. Implementation cost is a calibrated point estimate based on category complexity. Funders should refine all three with their own historical recovery data.
Risk overview
Procurement-policy non-compliance — amendments crossing the cap without re-tender invite Treasury Board scrutiny and Procurement Ombudsman review.
Departments accumulate amendments without competitive refresh; supplier relationships outgrow the original justification and procurement velocity slows.
Auditor General reports on amendment creep generate sustained media coverage and erode trust in the procurement function.
Justification & audit trail
50 cited matches · $1.8B at stake
The dataset shows 50 federal contracts where the current value is ≥3× the original commitment, totalling $1.8B in current spend. 50 are in the highest severity band (≥10× growth). Departments with formal amendment-cap policies (typically 2× or 1.5× over a multi-year window) would surface these for re-procurement before the threshold is crossed. The recommendation is grounded in 50 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
- growth_ratio233.29source: fed.grants_contributions
- final_value$23Msource: fed.grants_contributions
- growth_ratio166.50source: fed.grants_contributions
- final_value$17Msource: fed.grants_contributions
- growth_ratio162.70source: fed.grants_contributions
- final_value$44Msource: fed.grants_contributions
| Source | Row | Field | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q2-00523 | growth_ratio | 233.29 |
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q2-00523 | final_value | 23,329,391 |
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q2-00628 | growth_ratio | 166.50 |
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q2-00628 | final_value | 16,650,000 |
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q1-00260 | growth_ratio | 162.70 |
| fed.grants_contributions | 141-2021-2022-Q1-00260 | final_value | 43,930,329 |
Confidence rationale. Calibrated from 50 cited matches at flag severity. Confidence increases with match volume and severity; the snapshot pipeline rebuilds nightly.
Timeline & dependencies
- D+14Audit committee briefed
- D+45Evidence pack assembled
- D+90Decision recorded
Calibrated next steps
- 01Compile the agreements above against the existing amendment policy and identify which crossed the cap without re-procurement.
- 02If no formal cap exists, evaluate adopting one (e.g., 2× original within 5 years) and codify the trigger language.
- 03Flag amendments to /follow/sole-source-creep matches for legal/procurement review on a rolling basis.