The dataset shows 3 federal departments with HHI ≥ 1500 across recipient share. 1 are in the extreme band (HHI ≥ 5000) — a single supplier or small group dominates. Total disbursed by these departments: $27.4B. Concentration is not always a problem (specialty procurements may be inherently concentrated), but persistent concentration indicates the procurement strategy may merit redesign. The recommendation is grounded in 3 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
Recoverable / prevention rate (5.0%) and indirect-cost rate (0.8%) are calibrated category-level defaults grounded in published auditor benchmarks. Implementation cost is a calibrated point estimate based on category complexity. Funders should refine all three with their own historical recovery data.
Concentration in the absence of competition creates exposure under the Government Contracts Regulations and the Treasury Board Contracting Policy.
Single-supplier dependency increases delivery risk; loss of incumbent has a disproportionate impact on departmental mandate delivery.
Public-facing concentration metrics (HHI bands) are increasingly cited by parliamentary committees evaluating value for money.
3 cited matches · $27.4B at stake
The dataset shows 3 federal departments with HHI ≥ 1500 across recipient share. 1 are in the extreme band (HHI ≥ 5000) — a single supplier or small group dominates. Total disbursed by these departments: $27.4B. Concentration is not always a problem (specialty procurements may be inherently concentrated), but persistent concentration indicates the procurement strategy may merit redesign. The recommendation is grounded in 3 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
| Source | Row | Field | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed.grants_contributions | Veterans Affairs Canada | Anciens Combattants Canada | hhi | 9,812 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Veterans Affairs Canada | Anciens Combattants Canada | top1_recipient | batch report│rapport en lots |
| fed.grants_contributions | Department of Finance Canada | Ministère des Finances Canada | hhi | 4,080 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Department of Finance Canada | Ministère des Finances Canada | top1_recipient | Toronto Waterfront Revitalization Corporation |
| fed.grants_contributions | Royal Canadian Mounted Police | Gendarmerie royale du Canada | hhi | 3,963 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Royal Canadian Mounted Police | Gendarmerie royale du Canada | top1_recipient | Batch report |rapport en lots |
Confidence rationale. Calibrated from 3 cited matches at flag severity. Confidence increases with match volume and severity; the snapshot pipeline rebuilds nightly.