Evaluate competitive-procurement refresh in concentrated departments.
The dataset shows 45 federal departments with HHI ≥ 1500 across recipient share. 21 are in the extreme band (HHI ≥ 5000) — a single supplier or small group dominates. Total disbursed by these departments: $0. Concentration is not always a problem (specialty procurements may be inherently concentrated), but persistent concentration indicates the procurement strategy may merit redesign. The recommendation is grounded in 45 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
Monetary impact
Recoverable / prevention rate (5.0%) and indirect-cost rate (0.8%) are calibrated category-level defaults grounded in published auditor benchmarks. Implementation cost is a calibrated point estimate based on category complexity. Funders should refine all three with their own historical recovery data.
Risk overview
Concentration in the absence of competition creates exposure under the Government Contracts Regulations and the Treasury Board Contracting Policy.
Single-supplier dependency increases delivery risk; loss of incumbent has a disproportionate impact on departmental mandate delivery.
Public-facing concentration metrics (HHI bands) are increasingly cited by parliamentary committees evaluating value for money.
Justification & audit trail
45 cited matches · $0 at stake
The dataset shows 45 federal departments with HHI ≥ 1500 across recipient share. 21 are in the extreme band (HHI ≥ 5000) — a single supplier or small group dominates. Total disbursed by these departments: $0. Concentration is not always a problem (specialty procurements may be inherently concentrated), but persistent concentration indicates the procurement strategy may merit redesign. The recommendation is grounded in 45 pattern-detector matches across the federal corpus. Each cited match links back to specific source rows; an auditor walking the citation can verify every dollar in the headline.
- hhi$10Ksource: fed.grants_contributions
- top1_recipientPEACE HILLS TRUST COMPANY IN TRUSTsource: fed.grants_contributions
- hhi$9Ksource: fed.grants_contributions
- top1_recipientCANADA MEDIA FUND CORPORATIONsource: fed.grants_contributions
- hhi$9Ksource: fed.grants_contributions
- top1_recipientNATIONAL COUNCIL FOR RECONCILIATIONsource: fed.grants_contributions
| Source | Row | Field | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| fed.grants_contributions | Salish Sea Initiative Contribution Program | hhi | 9,788 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Salish Sea Initiative Contribution Program | top1_recipient | PEACE HILLS TRUST COMPANY IN TRUST |
| fed.grants_contributions | Canada Media Fund - Canada Media Fund | hhi | 9,217 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Canada Media Fund - Canada Media Fund | top1_recipient | CANADA MEDIA FUND CORPORATION |
| fed.grants_contributions | Governance and Institutions of Government | hhi | 9,015 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Governance and Institutions of Government | top1_recipient | NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR RECONCILIATION |
| fed.grants_contributions | Community Infrastructure | hhi | 8,936 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Community Infrastructure | top1_recipient | CIBC TRUST CORPORATION |
| fed.grants_contributions | Health System Capacity | hhi | 8,805 |
| fed.grants_contributions | Health System Capacity | top1_recipient | MINISTRY OF HEALTH |
Confidence rationale. Calibrated from 45 cited matches at flag severity. Confidence increases with match volume and severity; the snapshot pipeline rebuilds nightly.
Timeline & dependencies
- D+14Audit committee briefed
- D+45Evidence pack assembled
- D+90Decision recorded
Calibrated next steps
- 01Decompose the HHI into volume-driven vs. unit-price-driven concentration for each flagged department.
- 02Compare with peer departments delivering similar mandates — identify outliers.
- 03Where concentration persists across multiple FYs, evaluate procurement-design changes (open tenders, longer notice periods, explicit competition mandates).