Running pattern detector against the corpus
The dataset shows programs where a single supplier or small group receives a disproportionate share of spend — incumbency replacing competition.
Glassbox surfaces correlations and observations, not findings of misconduct. Severity is a calibrated read on how strongly the dataset matches the pattern definition — a starting point for review, not a verdict.
The match meets the pattern threshold but the signal is the lower band. Normal review queue.
The match exceeds the routine threshold. Worth a closer look — pull the source rows, walk the citation.
The match is in the highest band of the calibrated scale. Recommend: prioritise for active review.
Severity is computed from the detection signal · per (department, program) over the rolling 36 months to the corpus as-of date · program total ≥ $10M · ≥ 3 recipients · HHI = Σ recipient share² × 100² ≥ p90 of program HHIs within the department AND ≥ 1500 floor · bands: ≥5000 extreme, ≥2500 highly, ≥1500 moderately concentrated · signal = HHI
The dataset shows Canadian Heritage | Patrimoine canadien's program "Exchanges Canada Program - Youth Exchanges Canada" disbursing $26M to 4 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4908 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3889); top recipients (YMCA OF GREATER TORONTO, EXPERIENCES CANADA, CANADA SPORTS FRIENDSHIP EXCHANGE PROGRAMS) account for 99% of program spend.
Once a match is identified, the dataset suggests these review actions. Glassbox does not prescribe outcomes — these are calibrated options for funders, auditors, and program officers, framed as correlations to investigate.
Concentration can reflect a few large contracts (volume) or many small ones (incumbency). Each implies different responses — the former may be one-off necessity, the latter suggests competitive design issues.
Some functions are inherently concentrated (specialty equipment, niche expertise). Compare with peer departments delivering similar mandates to identify outliers.
If concentration persists across multiple FYs, the procurement strategy itself may merit redesign — open tenders, longer notice periods, or explicit competition mandates.
Annual re-scoring lets the funder track whether concentration is stable, increasing, or decreasing — and whether interventions are working.
These are calibrated suggestions, not directives. The dataset shows the pattern; the funder decides the response.
Aggregated from the matches below. Severity bands are calibrated per pattern; counts and dollar totals reflect this snapshot only.
The dataset shows Public Safety Canada | Sécurité publique Canada's program "(ASFCP) The Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program" disbursing $48M to 7 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4880 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 4308); top recipients (batch report│rapport en lots, Ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec, City of Winnipeg | Ville de Winnipeg) account for 96% of program spend.
The dataset shows Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada | Immigration, Réfugiés et Citoyenneté Canada's program "International Migration Capacity Building Program" disbursing $41M to 5 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4794 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3781); top recipients (Migration Policy Institute, International Organization for Migration | Organisation internationale pour les migrations, Danish Refugee Council) account for 96% of program spend.
The dataset shows Canadian Heritage | Patrimoine canadien's program "Enhancement of Official Languages Program - Second Language Learning" disbursing $143M to 21 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4554 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3889); top recipients (CORPORATION OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS OF EDUCATION, CANADA (THE), ASSOCIATION DES COLLÈGES ET UNIVERSITÉS DE LA FRANCOPHONIE CANADIENNE, VOILÀ COMMUNITY HELP) account for 79% of program spend.
The dataset shows Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency | Agence de promotion économique du Canada atlantique's program "REGI - Regional Innovation Ecosystem (RIE)" disbursing $88M to 81 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4461 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 1403); top recipients (Institute for Ocean Research Enterprise, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Vimy Forge Corp) account for 72% of program spend.
The dataset shows Global Affairs Canada | Affaires mondiales Canada's program "Proj Dev Act Francophone Summit" disbursing $13M to 3 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4392 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3981); top recipients (OIF - Organisation internationale De La Francophonie, OIF - Organisation internationale De La Francophonie, International Organisation of La Francophonie | OIF - Organisation internationale de la Francophonie) account for 100% of program spend.
The dataset shows Transport Canada | Transports Canada's program "Remote Passenger Rail Program" disbursing $106M to 3 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4367 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 4075); top recipients (Tshiuetin S.E.C.|Tshiuetin S.E.C., Arctic Gateway Group Limited Partnership|Arctic Gateway Group Limited Partnership, Keewatin Railway Company|Keewatin Railway Company) account for 100% of program spend.
The dataset shows Global Affairs Canada | Affaires mondiales Canada's program "Contributions-Multilateral Programming" disbursing $569M to 11 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4278 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3981); top recipients (IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development, IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development, ACTED Canada | ACTED Canada) account for 95% of program spend.
The dataset shows Natural Resources Canada | Ressources naturelles Canada's program "Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Program" disbursing $180M to 3 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 4064 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3580); top recipients (NEW BRUNSWICK POWER CORPORATION, MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND CLIMATE SOLUTIONS, INDEPENDENT ELECTRICITY SYSTEM OPERATOR (IESO)) account for 100% of program spend.
The dataset shows Department of Justice Canada | Ministère de la Justice Canada's program "Legal Aid" disbursing $343M to 32 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3878 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2141); top recipients (MINISTÈRE DE LA JUSTICE DU QUÉBEC|MINISTÈRE DE LA JUSTICE DU QUÉBEC, LEGAL AID ONTARIO|AIDE JURIDIQUE ONTARIO, BATCH REPORT IMPACT OF RACE AND CULTURE ASSESSMENTS (IRCAs)|RAPPORT EN LOTS ÉVALUATIONS DE L’INCIDENCE DE L’ORIGINE ETHNIQUE ET CULTURELLE (EIOEC)) account for 92% of program spend.
The dataset shows National Defence | Défense nationale's program "Canadian Defence Industry Resilience (CDIR) Program" disbursing $1.4B to 3 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3652 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2634); top recipients (General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada Inc. | General Dynamics Produits de défense et Systèmes tactique - Canada Inc., General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada Valleyfield Inc. | General Dynamics Produits de défense et Systèmes tactique - Canada Valleyfield Inc., IMT Partnership) account for 100% of program spend.
The dataset shows Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions | Développement économique Canada pour les régions du Québec's program "QEDP - Development and promotion of assets and the regions" disbursing $12M to 22 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3531 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 1871); top recipients (Montréal International, Ermitage Saint-Antoine, Sheueu) account for 71% of program spend.
The dataset shows Employment and Social Development Canada | Emploi et Développement social Canada's program "Skills and Partnership Fund - CRF" disbursing $12M to 5 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3508 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3037); top recipients (Native Council of Nova Scotia, First Kaska GP Ltd., National Association of Friendship Centres) account for 87% of program spend.
The dataset shows Prairies Economic Development Canada | Développement économique Canada pour les Prairies's program "Women's Enterprise Initiative" disbursing $15M to 3 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3333 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2799); top recipients (Manitoba Women's Enterprise Centre Inc.|Centre d'entreprise des femmes du Manitoba inc., Alberta Women Entrepreneurs Association, Women Entrepreneurs of Saskatchewan Inc.) account for 100% of program spend.
The dataset shows Department of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities | Ministère du Logement, de l’Infrastructure et des Collectivités's program "Zero Emission Transit Fund" disbursing $958M to 11 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3202 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 3091); top recipients (City of Ottawa | Ville d'Ottawa, Edmonton, City of | Edmonton, Ville d', City of Calgary | Ville de Calgary) account for 96% of program spend.
The dataset shows Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada | Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada's program "Agricultural Climate Solutions Program" disbursing $350M to 5 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 3127 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2511); top recipients (Saskatchewan Association of Watersheds, Results Driven Agricultural Research, Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association) account for 86% of program spend.
The dataset shows Environment and Climate Change Canada | Environnement et Changement climatique Canada's program "Low Carbon Economy Fund" disbursing $82M to 9 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 2958 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2868); top recipients (Government of Alberta, Government of the Northwest Territories, Manitoba Métis Federation) account for 79% of program spend.
Why this may be benign · Large statutory or formula-driven transfers (health, equalisation, infrastructure envelopes) dominate departmental totals and inflate concentration measures without any procurement decision.
The dataset shows Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada | Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada's program "Wine Sector Support Program" disbursing $145M to 459 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 2776 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 2511); top recipients (Arterra Wines Canada, Inc. Vins Arterra Canada, Inc., Andrew Peller Limited, Henry of Pelham Inc) account for 76% of program spend.
The dataset shows Public Health Agency of Canada | Agence de la santé publique du Canada's program "Aboriginal Head Start in Urban and Northern Communities (AHSUNC)" disbursing $12M to 5 recipients over the 36 months to 2026-09-01. HHI 2612 (highly concentrated; department 90th percentile 1904); top recipients (REGROUPEMENT DES CENTRES D’AMITIE AUTOCHTONES DU QUEBEC INC. | REGROUPEMENT DES CENTRES D’AMITIE AUTOCHTONES DU QUEBEC INC., Qikiqtani Inuit Association | Qikiqtani Inuit Association, CENTRE DE LA PETITE ENFANCE PREMIER PAS DE LA TUQUE | CENTRE DE LA PETITE ENFANCE PREMIER PAS DE LA TUQUE) account for 83% of program spend.